Fachartikel: Prof. Dr. Rolf Hichert - Bessere = Entscheidungen durch MIS und Data Warehousing? (C) ZfU AG

From: Subject: Fachartikel: Prof. Dr. Rolf Hichert - Bessere Entscheidungen durch MIS und Data Warehousing? (C) ZfU AG Date: Sun, 20 May 2001 22:35:15 +0200 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C0E17D.239828F0"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C0E17D.239828F0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.zfu.ch/fartikel/fartikel_mis01.htm Fachartikel: Prof. Dr. Rolf Hichert - Bessere = Entscheidungen durch MIS und Data Warehousing? (C) ZfU AG

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Referent	Prof. = Dr. Rolf=20 Hichert
	Gesch=E4ftsf=FChrer der Rolf = Hichert &=20 Partner KG, Kreuzlingen Professor an der Fachhochschule=20 Eberswalde
Artikel	Bessere=20 Entscheidungen durch MIS und Data = Warehousing?
	Mehr MIS heisst mehr Informationen, daraus folgen bessere = Entscheidungen - und damit hat das Unternehmen mehr Erfolg: = Dies ist=20 die Wirkungskette, die unsere Erwartungshaltung = zusammenfasst. Die=20 Frage nach dem Wert der Information ist =FCberhaupt nicht = trivial -=20 denn wie kann der Nutzen von etwas bestimmt werden, das man = benutzen=20 muss, um diesen Nutzen abzusch=E4tzen! Dieses Paradoxon = l=E4sst den=20 angeblichen Warencharakter der Information zumindest = fraglich=20 erscheinen. Da man Information als Ware ansieht, wurde = schnelle die=20 Frage erhoben, was uns eine Information, mit der wir ein = Problem=20 l=F6sen wollen, wirklich kostet und was diese Information = wirklich=20 wert ist. Bei den Kosten einer Information sind wir uns schnell = einig -=20 aber beim Wert, beim Nutzen einer Information f=E4llt uns = die Antwort=20 nicht leicht. Wir k=F6nnten annehmen, dass wir ein Problem = mit Hilfe=20 einer verf=FCgbaren Information besser l=F6sen als ohne. Und = damit w=E4re=20 ein Mass f=FCr die Information das Ausmass der Ungewissheit, = die mit=20 eben dieser Information aufgehoben wird. In diesem = Zusammenhang muss=20 man doch sehr kritisch hinterfragen, wie man von einem ROI = von 43%=20 sprechen kann, der angeblich die Verzinsung des bei der = Entwicklung=20 eines MIS oder Data Warehouse eingesetzten Kapitals = beziffert. "Information" hat nun einmal keinen Wert an sich - nur = ihr=20 Empf=E4nger kann diesen Wert beurteilen. Reine = Erstmaligkeit,=20 Neuigkeit einer Information (informationstechnisch: = "Rauschen")=20 f=FChrt n=E4mlich genauso wenig zu einer Wirkung wie die = reine=20 Best=E4tigung des Vorwissens ("Redundanz"). "Information" = muss also=20 irgendwo dazwischen liegen. Beispiel: Nehmen wir die=20 Management-Berichte in papierner oder Bildschirm-Form oder = die=20 Gr=F6sse eines Data Warehouses: Ihre Vervielfachung in den = letzten=20 Jahren ist =FCberhaupt noch keine Garantie daf=FCr, dass = auch die=20 Information in gleichem Masse gewachsen ist. Man kann davon=20 ausgehen, dass jeder Bericht einen gewissen Anteil an = Neuigkeit=20 (Information), an Redundanz (Wiederholung) und auch an = Rauschen=20 (Unverst=E4ndlichem) enth=E4lt. Ohne ein Minimum an = Information w=FCrde er=20 wohl vom Empf=E4nger abgelehnt, ohne den Teil an Redundanz = (z.B.=20 Vorjahresvergleiche) w=FCrde er nicht verstanden werden - = und das=20 informationstheoretische Rauschen ist bei unter-schiedlichen = Empf=E4ngern nicht vermeidbar. Von Information zu Wissen Es erscheint also = zweckm=E4ssig=20 zu sein, zwischen Information und Wissen zu unterscheiden, = um den=20 Wert einer Information bewerten zu k=F6nnen. Und dieser Wert = besteht=20 darin, dass eine Mitteilung eine neue (und nachpr=FCfbare) = Behauptung=20 =FCber das uns "interessierende" Thema enth=E4lt, die unser = Wissen=20 erweitert. Statt "nachpr=FCfbar" kann auch von = "vertrauensw=FCrdig"=20 gesprochen werden - eine Information, der wir nicht = vertrauen=20 k=F6nnen, ist kaum etwas wert. Und jetzt kommt ein weiteres = Paradoxon:=20 Dieses Vertrauen richtet sich weniger auf den Inhalt der=20 Information, sondern vor allem darauf, ob man der Quelle der = Information trauen kann. Damit entsteht nun auch die Frage, = ob in=20 einem Data Warehouse oder im Internet Wissen oder lediglich = Daten=20 gespeichert sind, aus denen durch Interaktion f=FCr den = Menschen=20 Informationen werden, die eventuell sein Wissen erh=F6hen = k=F6nnen.=20 Und damit kommen wir zur grossen Herausforderung an die=20 Gestaltung und Aussagekraft von allen MIS-L=F6sungen, = Planungs- und=20 Berichtssystemen: Man muss schon wissen, was alles gemeint = sein=20 k=F6nnte, bevor man weiss, was gemeint ist. Oder anders = ausgedr=FCckt:=20 Die Fragen muss man kennen, sonst kann man mit den Antworten = nichts=20 anfangen (Klaus Kornwachs). Qualit=E4t von Entscheidungen Wissen war in = der=20 Wirkungskette von oben nur Mittel zum Zweck: Kommen wir nun = mit mehr=20 Wissen zu besseren Entscheidungen? In = Entscheidungssituationen=20 wird mit gewissen Zielvorstellungen zwischen Alternativen=20 ausgew=E4hlt. Ich muss also wissen, was ich will, um mich = entscheiden=20 zu k=F6nnen, und ich muss Wissen =FCber die Alternativen = haben (Bei=20 eindeutigen Zielen und vollst=E4ndigem Wissen gibt es keine=20 Entscheidung mehr). In der Praxis gibt es damit zwei = Problemtypen=20 - und Kombinationen davon: Eine unscharfe Zielfunktion (wir wissen nicht = so genau,=20 was wir wollen) f=FChrt zwangsl=E4ufig zu unsicheren und = auch zu=20 nachtr=E4glich nicht bewertbaren Entscheidungen (!)=20 Fehlendes Wissen (Unf=E4higkeit, schlechte Systeme) = f=FChrt zu=20 Fehleinsch=E4tzung von Alternativen und damit = Fehlentscheidungen,=20 Wenn wir mit unseren MIS- und Data = Warehouse-L=F6sungen immer=20 bessere Informationen bereitstellen, bleibt dann f=FCr die = Entscheider=20 zuk=FCnftig nur noch die Aufgabe der Zielformulierung - und = die=20 Entscheidung wird trivial? Anders gefragt: Wenn man = w=FCsste, was man=20 wirklich will, tr=E4fe man dann auch immer die richtige=20 Entscheidung? Fazit: Auch die im schnellsten MIS oder = gr=F6ssten=20 Data Warehouse eingelagerten Informationen k=F6nnen ohne die = richtigen=20 Fragestellungen nie zu richtigen Antworten=20 f=FChren.

ZfU Zentrum = f=FCr=20 Unternehmungsf=FChrung AG, = Schweiz
Copyright=20 =A9 / Stand: 7 Mai, 2001 =

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